It is finally here. We made it to NFL Draft day.
This offseason has dragged on at a snail’s pace, partly because of the drama surrounding the No. 1 overall pick since what the Cardinals might do is so up in the air. Here in the Bay Area, we are focused on the 49ers and Raiders, who both obviously draft in the top 5, and figuring out this draft has been somewhat complicated. The uncertainty is exciting for us but also makes it stressful trying to guess what will happen. There are just a lot of unknowns, even hours before the draft.
The rumors have really started to take shape. The information overload for us in the media — or even fans of a team — can be a bit much. What is true? What is fake? I really have no clue. I’m not sure most people in the NFL even know. But I have changed my thinking ever since this tweet:
April 1st confidence meter:
Kyler Murray will be 1st overall pick
(90%)April 15th confidence meter:
Kyler Murray will be 1st overall pick (60%)— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) April 15, 2019
What if Arizona’s entire Kyler Murray love was a complete smokescreen? What if they actually believe in the quarterback they have? You know, Josh Rosen, the guy they drafted 10th a year ago today. They could easily justify taking the top defensive player on the board and rolling forward with Rosen. I am starting to think that will be the move.
I don’t really care who goes first in Draft but I’ve had 2 separate high ranking League officials say they don’t think the Cards are taking Murray. Of course they are guessing, so we’ll see
— Greg Gabriel (@greggabe) April 24, 2019
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I worked with Greg Gabriel for a year in Philadelphia and have followed him on social media since he joined Twitter. He is not trying to drum up craziness. When he says stuff, he believes it and/or is hearing it from people in the NFL. So because of the changing tide of thoughts around the league, I am going to adapt my thinking, as well.
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1. Arizona Cardinals: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
The smokescreen with Murray kept us all on the edge of our seats, and helped keep the draft relevant for weeks. That is the type of drama NFL executives live for. But in my mock draft scenario, Arizona chooses to stick with and build around Rosen, a big-time talent, while adding the top player on their draft board. If Arizona adds Bosa to go along with Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs, their defensive line is immediately top-notch. In a division with quarterbacks Russell Wilson, Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo, having a formidable pass rush is a must. This pick would officially send Twitter into a tizzy, which I am all for.
2. Raiders (trade with 49ers): Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
This would really send the draft into a frenzy. Jon Gruden swaps No. 4 for No. 2 while throwing in No. 27, to land his franchise quarterback. His love for Murray has been well documented, and with the Cardinals passing on Murray, it allows Gruden to land his star heading into Vegas. While he had to part with No. 27 to move up, Gruden should be able to recoup a second-round pick for Derek Carr sometime on Friday. With Murray on board to go along with Gruden and Antonio Brown, it would almost lock up the Raiders as the “Hard Knocks” destination for August. The Raiders would officially become must-watch TV.
3. New York Jets: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was part of the Rams organization when Aaron Donald was drafted. Williams was also with Donald for three years, helping him develop into an elite player. I think the Jets swing for the fences here. This is a risky pick, but the upside for a home run is just too much to pass up in this scheme. If the Jets can add Oliver to go along with the solid free-agency pickups they made this offseason, they should be much more competitive in 2019.
4. 49ers: Quinnen Williams, DL, Alabama
In the Raiders swap, the 49ers were able to add a late first-round pick and still land arguably the best player in the draft. Williams pairs with Dee Ford and DeForest Buckner to form an excellent front in Robert Saleh’s defense. Also, with the draft being loaded with edge rushers, the 49ers could easily take another pass rusher either with pick 27 or 36. But Williams would join Buckner, helping to form one of the most talented inside pass rushing duos in the NFL. In a league, and a division, full of questionable interior offensive linemen, the 49ers would be poised to really put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
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5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Allen, OLB, Kentucky
While everyone thinks Tampa Bay will take Devin White of LSU at this spot, I think they’ll go a different direction. Their biggest need is a pass rusher, especially with a defensive scheme change in which Gerald McCoy no longer really fits. Allen is an ideal 3-4 outside linebacker. He ran the same scheme at Kentucky, he rushes naturally from a two-point stance, and ultimately I see Bruce Arians wanting a pass rusher in this spot if he is still on the board. I love this fit.
6. New York Giants: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Giants general manager Dave Gettleman has talked over and over about the Kansas City model. He wants to draft a young quarterback to sit behind Eli Manning for a year, then make him the starter in 2020. I think they go with Lock because his traits are the best fit for them. His arm is top notch, and he fits the size protocol the Giants desire. And, unlike Manning, he is a solid athlete. I also think Gettleman isn’t the best evaluator, and this feels like the type of pick he would make.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Andre Dillard, OL, Washington State
The Jaguars invested a lot of money in quarterback Nick Foles and will need to protect him soon. Their new offensive coordinator is John DeFilippo, who took criticism last year while on the Vikings staff with Mike Zimmer for wanting to pass the ball. Throwing a lot shouldn’t be that crazy of a concept since it’s 2019, not 1997. So why not draft the best pass blocker in the class to protect your new, expensive quarterback? They could go tight end here, but at the end of the day, I think personnel chief Tom Coughlin leans toward someone on the line.
8. Detroit Lions: Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan
The Lions go with the local guy, as coach Matt Patricia tries to copy his former boss, Bill Belichick, from years ago. In 2001, the Patriots drafted Richard Seymour, who has a similar body type to Gary’s, and changed their defense for the better. Gary will immediately allow the Lions defense to be more versatile, and help (in theory) heat up the talented quarterbacks in their division. This is a risky pick given Gary’s underachieving track record in college and his reported shoulder issue. It should be noted, however, that Leonard Williams, whom the Jets drafted sixth in 2015, had the same question with his shoulder and has not had issues in the pros.
9. Buffalo Bills: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
The Bills have a franchise quarterback, who isn’t the most accurate passer, and a ton of smaller wide receivers. Hockenson would immediately give Josh Allen a big target in the short and intermediate passing game. Plus, he’s also a well-rounded player from a school that demands tight ends block and Hockenson is used to playing in the cold. In other words, he should seamlessly fit in with the Bills program. Hockenson is viewed by many of my friends in the league as one of the best all-around players in this draft. Having worked with Bills coach Sean McDermott before and knowing what type of players he likes, this pick makes too much sense.
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10. Denver Broncos: Devin Bush Jr., LB, Michigan
I know some people in the NFL who view Devin Bush as a better player than Devin White. Broncos coach Vic Fangio’s defenses have been at their best when they have had great pass rushers and dominant tackling linebackers. The Broncos already have two top-notch edge rushers, so don’t be shocked to see them go with Bush here. Fangio loves his middle linebackers to play sideline to sideline, which Bush does, and be natural leaders. Bush was the Michigan defensive team captain in 2019. This guy has Fangio and John Elway written all over him.
(Photo: Brett Deering/Getty Images)
